In October 2012, the U. S. State Department will decide whether to remove MEEK from the FOOT list based on Me’s denouncing terrorist tactics and devotion to diplomatic means to gain power versus violent attacks (Masters 2012). Origins, Ideology and Goals MEEK was born out of a student-group resistance to Shah Papilla in 1965. The founding members of MEEK in Tehran regarded the Shah as a U. S. Puppet, and they felt that his westernizes of Iran went against Iran’s traditional Islamic values.
They believed in a violent overthrow of the Shah to return Iran to Islamic rule. In 1979, the roof aligned itself with Ayatollah Shoeing in hopes that it could run for office after Shah Papilla’s exile, but Ayatollah Shoeing succeeded in overthrowing the Shah and he crushed any opposition to his new government. Since 1979, MEEK has been trying to gain the opportunity to run for office in Iran’s government by shifting alliances and violently attacking the forces, which have prevented its political ambitions (Kulak 2009).
In 2003, the group biblically denounced violence in an attempt to foster global political support, but its place on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FOOT) list is locking it from achieving its desired global support. According to MEEK, it has “striver for freedom and human rights, first against the despotic reign of Shah, and now the theocratic tyranny of the ayatollahs” (MEEK n. D. ). It is “an anti-fundamentalist Muslim organization which believes in a democratic, progressive, and tolerant interpretation of Islam, according to which elections and public suffrage are the sole indicators of political legitimacy.
The IMO endeavors for a secular, democratic, and non-nuclear republic, and is committed to free elections, gender equality, and abolition of all scarification against national and religious minorities” (MEEK n. D. ) “Non-nuclear” is a key consideration for the United States and other western powers. Iran has increasingly taunted the world with its nuclear program and refuses to deescalate military tensions. In bold statements of aggression, in 2012 alone, Iran has announced two new missiles, an air defense site, and a fleet of ultra-fast gun boats designed to zip into battle against larger western fleets.
In a twist of fate, Me’s future may lie in the hands of the United States. The United States has until October , 2012 to decide if it will delis MEEK from the FOOT. If MEEK is deleted it will enjoy much more freedom of movement around the world and it will be able to legally receive funds from U. S. Based sympathizers. It is not unreasonable to think that the U. S. Will delis MEEK in an effort to undermine the Iranian Government, much like Sad Hussein offered MEEK a home in 1986 to undermine Iran during the Iran Iraq war.
Leadership, Funding and Capabilities Most of Me’s original leadership was arrested and executed in 1971, but Amassed Raja escaped death and remains a leader of MEEK. Though he has not en seen publicly since 2003, his wife, Mary Raja, “is the public face of the MEEK in her role as president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran” Cones 2012). In the past four decades the group has used several methods to raise funds for its campaign. Some methods have made the group infamous and add to the list of reasons that the U. S. ND several other nations have classified it as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. MEEK has long been skilled in deception and has used that skill to affect its fund raising efforts. For example, its solicitation of funds for Iranian effuses, child welfare, and children’s medical services proven to be fraudulent (FBI n. D. ). Until 2003, MEEK had a substantial armory due to its previous relationship with Sad Hussein. Its inventory often included artillery, tanks, aircraft, rocket launchers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, land mines, and bullets (FBI n. . ). In 2003, the United States bombed MEEK camps and bunkers based on their relationship to Sad Hussein and the idea that they posed a significant threat with their armaments. MEEK members no longer have easy access to such large stockpiles of arms. MEEK is now facing deportation from its Iraqi camp Ashram and remains disarmed. Operating Bases, Support Bases, Strengths MEEK has moved its headquarters over the years as a necessary part of survival. Originally founded in Tehran, it moved to Paris after the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
The group had allied with the Ayatollah Shoeing, but Shoeing forced the group out in fear of opposition. In 1986 Sad Hussein invited the group to relocate to camp Ashram. Iraq was at war with Iran, and relocating the group from Paris to Iraq was Hussein’s method of undermining Iran. At the start of the U. S. Led war in Iraq under Operation Iraqi Freedom, the group was classified as enemy combatants and subsequently confined to Camp Ashram, where approximately 3,000 MEEK now live (Carter 2011). The new government of Iraq has declared that all members of MEEK must leave the country, and the U.
N. Is currently working to resettle the group elsewhere. For the moment MEEK enjoys limited support from sympathizers around the world, but it is stateless which is both a strength and a weakness. The U. N. , citing international law, will not allow the Iraqi government to force members to leave Iraq or force repatriation until members have a suitable place to eve. This predicament brings MEEK some publicity and sympathy for their cause, but Iraq’s determination to expel MEEK could not have occurred at a worse time.
With June 2013 elections nearing, increasing tension with western military powers, and an imminent Israeli preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear targets, MEEK leadership must act swiftly to ensure its place in the 2013 elections. PART II – RED TEAM ANALYSIS Why Use Red Team Analysis? Given the complex dynamics of the Iranian situation, analysts should use the Red Team Analysis technique in order to best predict what course(s) of action MEEK dervish will take to assume control of the government. By amphetamine with the MEEK leadership analysts can gain better insight to most likely courses of action.
The end state of this analytic technique is to provide Congress and the President with an accurate forecast of Me’s courses of action so that the United States may apply the appropriate short and long term foreign policy in the Middle East. Since MEEK desires a peaceful, tolerant Iran that can only be legitimated via free elections and public suffrage, it cannot take control of the nation by force. Therefore, Me’s options are limited and it must patiently await the 2013 elections regardless of the growing concern of military action and economic sanctions.
As President Maidenhead continues to escalate military tension with western nations and Israel, through missile, nuclear, and naval programs (Tribal 2012). MEEK leadership must carefully calculate how to win popular Iranian support, world support, and financial backing – all without ever appearing to be influenced by western powers as previous Iranian leaders had. Red Team Analysis must begin with placing oneself in the shoes of MEEK dervish. The key to determining any viable course of action is to outline clear goals or milestones.
With clear goals, analysts can categorize what actions and strategies are available and likely. According to Me’s official website, its current goals, rather, solution to the western-Iranian strife is to “rid the region and the world of the nightmare of the Islamic fundamentalists armed with nuclear weapons [by] democratic change in Iran by the people and the Resistance” (Raja 2010). This stated goal remains largely unchanged from its sass goal. The main difference now s that MEEK is more tolerant of western aid, albeit, so long as they do not become overly influenced by it.
Key Assumptions Check Paramount to the analytic process is a key assumptions check. This step allows analysts to clearly document the start point of their cognitive map as well as allowing time to consider information that challenges cognitive biases. The key assumptions must be listed in such a way that analysts feel like MEEK leaders would if trying to decide how to realize their stated goal of taking control of the Iranian government. Below is a list of key assumptions in this Red Team Analysis. Previous Failures.
All previous attempts to control government have failed beginning with the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. This assumption is critical because the MEEK believed the Ayatollah Shoeing was their ally. They were betrayed. They banded together only to be exiled within two years and many members were arrested and executed while Shoeing consolidated power. The experience likely taught MEEK to distrust any potential allies within the current regime. History of Violence. During the sass the Shah used force and violence against government opposition.
Uprisings in the sass culminated in he exile of the Shah, but into the sass MEEK fought the new Iranian government. During the Iraq-Iran war that began in the early sass, MEEK settled Just north of Baghdad and fought a cross border war with the clerical regime for twenty more years. Only at the turn of the century did MEEK publicly denounce violence and terrorist tactics. The significance is that, while MEEK members are accepting of risk and violence, they have matured and realize that they do not operate in a vacuum. MEEK understands the need for global acceptance. HUMMING Value. MEEK can offer HUMMING to the U.
S. No other organization with detailed knowledge of Iran and its military and political system is willing to provide such information to western powers. The U. S. Has had extremely limited success installing or recruiting agents in Iran because of extreme scrutiny that outsiders face, and CIA informants are usually discovered due to poor tradeoff (Hospitable 2011). MEEK however, has family, friends, sympathizers and safe houses inside Iran. As well, since the U. S. Invasion of Iraq in 2003 MEEK has received training, equipment and funds to carry out attacks inside Iran and to collaborate with U.
S. ND Israeli intelligence services Shoos 2012). Me’s HUMMING value is possibly the most important aspect for western powers. MEEK leadership understands the power they hold and must leverage it wisely. Knowledge of U. S. Tactics Techniques and Procedures. MEEK leaders are aware of U. S. HTTPS at the small unit tactics level up through executive branch policymaking. They will play on the American and Israeli fears of a nuclear armed Iran while leveraging their HUMMING and political value to affect their delighting from the FOOT.
Once deleted they will be able to receive more funding from international sources, thus requiring less U. S. Support and will become less responsive to U. S. Demands. Western Support: Critical For Financing, Opposite of Ideology Being listed on the U. S. Foreign Terrorist Organization list impedes Me’s financing efforts. In order to gain power they must be deleted – decade long endeavor thus far. Its members have cooperated with Israeli and U. S. Intelligence services since 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political regime in Iran, but its original ideology was very much opposed to any western influence.
MEEK must exercise extreme caution to ensure that the group does not appear to be another puppet regime of the U. S and especially not in collaboration with Israel. If threatened with defeat, the current regime will likely try to depict MEEK as a puppet regime, and if the U. S. Loses influence it may also try to publicize Me’s cooperation in an effort to decrease its credibility among Iranians. Enormity of the Situation. MEEK is currently stateless. Though the U. N. Has petitioned several governments to accept MEEK members, most have declined to accept them.
With nowhere to go MEEK is desperate to gain power in Iran because it belongs to no other state. If they fail the Iranian regime will likely execute them, despite President Maidenhead’s amnesty offer. Data Collection Options Of the many collection options the United States has at its disposal, a handful stand out as being the most practical. HUMMING may be the best collection option because it offers an inside look at MEEK and the status of the Iranian nuclear and defense programs as well as the mentality and plans of regime leaders.
For example, an undercover agent, code named Wally, Joined the Revolutionary Guard in the sass and gave the CIA plans, ideology, weaponry etc, and he was able to recruit several ore members of the Revolutionary Guard to turn informer for the CIA (Zucchini COINS is another extremely useful collection option, which can provide detailed atmospherics and help depict the support, or lack thereof, of the general public to the current and possible successor regimes.
COINS can also offer information on Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities as depicted in the recent revelation that Iran has cloned a fleet of ultra-fast gun boats. Originally produced in England, the Breastbone Challenger (Blunderer) is a speedboat with a revolutionary hull design that affords it great stability at high speeds. Iran illicitly purchased a Blunderer in 2009, reverse engineered the design, and manufactured its own fleet which the Navy modified to launch torpedoes and missiles at full speed.
The Blunderer fleet, combined with “an array of heavily armed small craft, including unmanned high- speed Way Maid vessels, Bavaria 2 flying boats, Serial-I high-speed patrol boats and Gallagher fast attack craft” (Stock 2012) poses a significant threat to the Strait of Horror and western naval forces with much larger and slower vessels. SINGING and MASSING will likely have to wait until military confrontation begins in order to be relevant. ME-KS equipment inventory is very limited, so SINGING and MASSING should not be a top priority. GEEING is relevant in that it depicts the correlation of key terrain to strategic targets and political issues.
For example, GEEING can depict which routes MEEK would likely take in order to transit to Tehran or flee Iraq in other ways. It also helps answer contingency operation questions such as, “what if MEEK takes control of the military and attempts to hold the Strait of Horror ransom? ” In a more tactical situation GEEING can provide detailed dimensions of hideouts and buildings for the U. S. O plan an attack should the need arise. Use of the Intelligence Community The CIA is the best is the best agency to use to handle collection on MEEK.
The agency has more than half a century of experience in working with sources and is best trained in managing counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA has worked with MEEK members since 2002 when MEEK publicized Iran’s underground Uranium enrichment program. Training MEEK members in tradeoff techniques and supporting their cross-border subversion tactics allows the CIA to wage a proxy war with Iran while strengthening its relationship and aiming more human intelligence on both MEEK and Iran. No other agency within the United States has the resources to foster this type of relationship with MEEK.
Most Effective Intelligence Analysis Strategies The effective intelligence strategy to use for evaluating MEEK and forecasting its actions is to begin with Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and follow those results with the Devil’s Advocacy method. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. ACH is ideal for evaluating MEEK because there are diverse dynamics involved in forecasting MEEK actions. Considering that the U. S. Just decide to keep or delis MEEK from the FOOT on October 1, 2012, ACH would provide decision makers with a documented line of reasoning to support an Intelligence Forecast. Devil’s Advocacy.
The prevailing consensus in Washington is that MEEK has morphed from a militant group to a political group in the past decade and will be a more western friendly regime if it comes to power. But what if MEEK is playing the west to gain power now, while secretly planning to spread its 1979 revolutionary ideology across the Middle East and North Africa in an attempt to reestablish Persian dominance? It seems that the est. is focused first on countering a nuclear threat and second on countering any blocking of the Horror Strait. No additional talking points regarding Iran or MEEK have received much publicity since 1979.